THESE ARE TEAMS FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF UTAH AND BOISE, AWAITING THEIR CHANCE TO SLAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S GIANTS.
TCU -- Had the current BCS rules been in place from the start, TCU would have already made two appearances in 2000 and 2005. However, the Horned Frogs have the team to do it this year.
TCU's defense last year can be summed up with two words, total dominance. TCU was second nationally in total defense (they allowed 12.3 points and 235 yards per game), second in rush defense, third in scoring defense and 15th in sacks. Nine starters are returning including defensive end's Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. The two should cause offensive lines and quarterbacks all sorts of problems. Two year's ago the Horned Frogs made a splash by upsetting Oklahoma. They have the speed, athleticism and depth on defense to make even a bigger splash. If TCU goes 11-1, with an early loss at Texas, they still could crash the party.
Key games: Sept. 8 at Texas, Nov. 8 at BYU
Hawaii -- Quarterback Colt Brennan leads a high-octane offense that will score in droves. Hawaii must find a replacement in the backfield at running back to help Brennan. Defensively, the Warriors are reportedly going back to a 4-3 base, but will continue to be aggressive and try to force big plays. With seven starters returning, the D should be more productive than last year.
With that in mind, Hawaii has as good a chance as any to undefeated this season. Yet talk is already beginning that Hawaii's schedule will hold them out of a BCS game. Hang on; if Hawaii goes 12-0 they deserve to go to a BCS bowl here's why...
Last year's party crasher, Boise State, made it to a BCS game with an underwhelming schedule.
The Broncos hosted Sacramento State, a I-AA team, who finished with a 4-7 record and then hosted the Beavers of Oregon State (Pac-10). But, the Oregon State game was deceptively hard.
The Beavs finished 3rd in a tough conference. However, they started slowly, 2-3 in their first five games. The two wins came over I-AA Eastern Washington and perennial punching bag Idaho. Their losses came at Boise and then they dropped two games at home, a 28-point shellacking by Cal and seven-point loss to Washington State. Boise State played a very different Oregon State team.
The Broncos also visited two Mountain West schools; Wyoming who finished the year 6-6 and Utah finished 7-5 and went on to win in its bowl appearance.
Going back to Hawaii, the WAC should be a better conference top to bottom this year. New Mexico State's offense is for real and San Jose State is improving. Hawaii potentially finishes with four quality opponents in Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Washington. People know this is a tough Hawaii squad so don't count out the fact they may not have been able to schedule bigger-name opponents.
The Warriors are for real and hopefully will be given a chance to showcase their talent in a BCS Bowl, if they earn the honors.
Key games: Nov. 16 at Nevada, Nov. 23 vs. Boise State
Blogger's note: Tommy Blake celebrates after sacking Lobo quarterback Donovan Porterie last season. Blake begins the 2007 season on several award watch lists including Walter Camp, Lombardi and Bednarik. Photo courtesy of The Albuquerque Tribune.
2 comments:
I will agree with you on the TCU front, but perhaps less so with Hawaii. I think it's very hard to evaluate teams like TCU and Hawaii considering the enormous gap in talent between conferences like the Mountain West and WAC versus the Big 12 and Pac 10. I certainly won't argue that TCU doesn't have a great defense or that Hawaii's offense isn't one of the most statistically prolific in NCAA history, but I think you have to consider the teams that TCU and Hawaii play before deeming them BCS worthy.
I like many of the Mountain West and WAC teams, but San Jose St, San Diego St., Colorado St., and Utah St. aren't exactly college football juggernauts. Those teams sound like a laundry list of "cupcakes" that the big boys play early in the season to offset the lack of a college preseason. If your whole conference consists of so-called cupcakes and your occasional "tough" opponent comes at the end of a year of spanking around glorified I-AA schools, can you really claim to be the real deal?
The current college football postseason prevents us from ever knowing if some of these smaller conference schools are worthy, but I would argue that, say, even a Boise St. from last year is less worthy than some might assume. Their supposed "big win" prior to the Fiesta Bowl came against a very unprepared Oregon St. team in week 1 of the season. Is that one win, followed by an entire season of mismatch WAC contests, enough to know whether a nothing short of miraculous victory over Oklahoma makes them a true NCAA powerhouse? I would argue not, and their standing at #5 in the BCS despite a 13-0 season tells us that despite rising to incredible levels for a WAC team, Boise St. is still a WAC team.
We'll get a solid look at how TCU matches up with the Big 12 when they play Texas. We'll also get to see Hawaii play Washington this year. However, I would argue that even if they win those games it isn't enough to assume they belong in the BCS discussion. Now, if their whole schedule consisted of Pac 10 or Big 12 teams and the aberration was a WAC or Mountain West type opponent and they went 13-0, then we'd know how great they truly were. Otherwise it's an apples to oranges comparison that we'll never be able to make.
I believe it is hard to evaluate every team in college football and mid-major teams are no exception. It’s unbelievably subjective. However, I don’t think teams like Utah, TCU and Hawaii should be left out the discussion at the end of the season. There can be an enormous talent gap within major conferences, plus the Big 12, ACC and others have teams that aren’t football juggernauts like Baylor, Duke and Mississippi State. If a team from the Mountain West, WAC or MAC can successfully take care of its schedule, going undefeated, why shouldn’t they be given an opportunity to show what they can do in an elite game against an elite opponent?
So far there have only been two BCS games that showcase a lower-tier team: in 2004 Utah’s thrashing of weak-sauce Pitt and last year Boise State’s liberating win against Oklahoma last year. I wouldn’t claim that either team is a “true NCAA powerhouse,” but both squads proved to better than good. We will get a good look at how TCU matches up, as they travel to play Texas. And I suspect Hawaii will host a Washington team that is better than their record shows. So, if TCU goes 11-1, with a close loss to the Horns, or Hawaii goes 12-0, both teams should be in consideration for a premiere bowl game. This might be an apples to oranges comparison, but that’s why good teams from the WAC or Mountain West should have an opportunity to tee-it-up and kickoff-it-off.
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