“Ya Gotta Believe” there's no joy in Queens

If Colorado, New York and Philadelphia all win today and San Diego loses, all would finish 89-73. New York and Philadelphia would play the NL East tiebreaker tomorrow; the loser would play a three-team, two-day wild card tiebreaker with Colorado and San Diego on Tuesday and Wednesday. In that scenario, Colorado would get the choice of having a bye on Tuesday or playing both games at home.

That was the wildest tiebreaking scenario entering today, the last day of the 2007 MLB season. Not everything is settled, but it’s a little disappointing the regular season won’t last an extra three days.

However, the New York Mets epic collapse during the second-half of September trumps everything else.

One year ago, the Mets were on the verge of making the World Series. They forced Game 7 of the NLCS, but lost 3-1 to St. Louis. Outfielder Carlos Beltran’s struck out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Mets went home and the Cardinals went on to win the Series.

Was that a sign of the heartbreak Mets fans would endure? Maybe.

Just to put what happened in perspective, the NY Mets collapse was historic and will become legendary. No major-league team had failed to finish first after having at least a seven-game advantage with 17 games remaining, nobody, until the Mets.

The Mets collapse was done in a dramatic style, fitting for the Big Apple. They lost 12 of their final 17 games, getting swept by the Phillies and Nationals at home.

On Saturday as the Mets were on the brink of extinction, pitcher John Maine threw a no-hitter for 7 2/3 innings helping snap a five-game losing streak.

Facing a must win situation the Mets sent Tom Glavine, a future Hall of Famer, to the mound. In what was likely the final start of Glavine’s career, the lefty retired just one batter and allowed seven runs.

Mets fans reviled the star with boos. When Glavine reappeared on the scoreboard during a public service announcement, Mets fans booed that too.

Insufficient pitching and abysmal fielding (21 errors in 17 games) down the stretch doomed New York. The Mets’ ERA was an appalling 5.11 in September. Not to mention their sparkplug, shortstop Jose Reyes, hit just .197 in the final month. It all equaled a recipe for disaster.

“It hurts. But at the same time, we did it to ourselves. It’s not like it blindsides us. We gradually let this thing slip away. In all honesty, we didn’t deserve to make the playoffs,” Mets third baseman David Wright said.

That’s a good way to sum up the Mets early exit to this, a thrilling baseball season.

Blogger’s Note: Monday’s tiebreaker game between the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies will be the seventh one-game playoff in major league history. Here are the past three:

1999: Mets 5 - Reds 0
The Mets swept a three-game series from Pittsburgh, including a win in the final game of the season on a wild pitch. Cincinnati, needing to win to force the playoff, waited through a rain delay of five hours and 42 minutes and the Reds won 7-1 over Milwaukee once the played the game. The next night, Al Leiter pitched a shutout as the Mets won 5-0 and advanced to the NLDS.

1998: Cubs 5 - Giants 3
The Chicago Cubs could have made the playoffs as the NL wild-card team, but they lost their last game of the season. In the one-game playoff, the Cubs jumped out to a 5-0 lead, but San Francisco scored three runs in the top of the ninth inning. Rod Beck got the possible tying run to foul out as the Cubs won.

1995: Mariners 9 - Angels 1
The Seattle Mariners trailed the Angels by 13 games in the AL West, but rallied to take the division lead late in the season. However, the Angels won their final five games and forced a one-game playoff. The game featured Randy Johnson and Mark Langston as starters. The M’s won their first AL West title behind Johnson and Luis Sojo’s three-run double with the bases loaded.

Photo: A dejected New York Mets fan lingers in the stands after the Mets' 8-1 loss to the Florida Marlins, Sunday. The loss ended their season. Photo courtesy of AP Photo - Kathy Willens.

A-Rod's not worth beaucoup bucks

New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez is having one of the most prolific seasons by a major leaguer ever. With just six games remaining in the season, Rodriguez appears to be a lock for his third MVP award – he is hitting .311 with 52 home runs, 147 runs batted in, 138 runs scored and 90 walks.

However, Rodriguez can opt out of the final three years of his current contract with the Yankees, a contract that is scheduled to pay out $27 million. That opt out option has the rumor mill buzzing.

New York Magazine reported that A-Rod’s agent Scott Boras knows which group has the inside track in the sale of the Chicago Cubs and had “been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next 10 years.”

Boras denied the report today. But if you break it down there are only a handful of clubs that could add Rodriguez.

A-Rod is not going to play in a city that’s not a top 5 market and you can rule out a return to Dallas. That leaves New York, LA, Chicago and San Francisco. The Mets don’t need a third baseman or a shortstop, so scratch them. That leaves half-dozen teams: Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs and Giants.

But the better and less-asked question is winning the A-Rod sweepstakes worth it?

Boras drives a hard bargain and the anticipated number to get Rodriguez’s attention is $30 million a season, if he indeed opts out. In a New York Times article titled “Keeping Score,” Dan Rosenheck suggests that the maximum contribution A-Rod could make to a new employer in 2008 is nine victories.

In fact few free agents produce enough revenue to justify their contracts. The Houston Astros gave Carlos Lee $17 million a season entering 2007. While Lee leads the team in batting average, home runs and RBIs, he hasn’t helped Houston win.

In his article, Rosenheck concludes “the real way to make money in baseball is by developing young players and reaping the rewards of their production before they hit free agency. As with many auctions, the real winners of the A-Rod sweepstakes will be the teams that stay on the sideline.”

Rosenheck is dead on. Sometimes winning a sweepstake can be worth it. But often the team that wins doesn’t get much in return.

QB woes plague league

Over the past week several NFL teams have struggled figuring out what to do with the stars in the most glamorized position in football, the quarterback. Here’s a look:

PHILADELPHIA – McNabb’s making noise

Donovan McNabb has been under the microscope in Philadelphia. Six days ago, the Eagles were booed off the field following their 20-12 Monday night loss to Washington. Then, McNabb went on HBO and said that black quarterbacks face greater scrutiny than white quarterbacks, grabbing bad publicity in the process. After having a career year* in 2004, including a trip to the Super Bowl, McNabb’s next two seasons ended early due to injury. This year, things didn’t start well. But on Sunday, McNabb threw for 381 yards and four touchdown passes leading the Eagles to their first win of the season. The ship appears corrected.

FPS analysis – A what have done for me lately mentality grips all sports especially the NFL. McNabb needs to recognize this, stop talking and play football. He’s a gifted athlete and quarterback who is capable of making the Eagles NFC contenders. Simply put, on the field victories result in less criticism. McNabb needs to put up big numbers before he starts running his mouth. This week should be better for Donovan.

ATLANTA – Dumping on Joey

Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino put QB Joey Harrington on the hot seat this past week. Petrino said it was not fair to blame the offensive line for the high sack numbers through the first two weeks of the season, 13 total. Joey was holding the ball too long. On Sunday, Harrington responded completing 31-of-44 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns. While Harrington was saddled with the loss, it was not his fault. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall picked up three penalties, accounting for 67-yards, during a Carolina drive killing any momentum the Falcons had. In the fourth quarter, playing catch-up, Harrington hit wide receiver Joe Horn in the hands with a pass in the end zone. Horn dropped the six-yard pass attempt and the Falcons settled for three points.

FPS analysis – Harrington is not a great quarterback. Actually the best description for him might be slightly above-average. However, Joey "Quack-Quack" had a 5-4 record last year at the helm in Miami. Atlanta is in trouble, period. Their new QB addition, Byron Leftwich, doesn't really fit the offensive style. The best guy for quarterbacking Atlanta is now in Houston. It's high time to stop taking shots at Harrington. He's an easy target, but playing on terrible teams has not helped either. For now, Harrington should be the starter in Atlanta.

CHICAGO – A Windy City mess

Rex Grossman’s rough outing Sunday, 15-of-32 for 195 yards and three interceptions, lead to boos from the home crowd and a “we want Griese” chant in the second half. Griese, referring to Chicago’s backup QB Brian Griese, is a ten-year veteran of the NFL. With six interceptions this season, Grossman now leads the NFL with most interceptions since 2006 ahead of Detroit’s Jon Kitna and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. The Bears are struggling offensively, banged up defensively and have stumbled to a 1-2 start.

FPS analysis – For now, it appears that the coaching staff is behind Grossman. But there is not a good answer for Chicago’s quarterback woes. Inserting Griese into the lineup might translate to more wins now, but Grossman was supposed to be the future for Chicago. Neither option looks like the long-term answer in the Windy City. At this point Chicago can’t afford to go back to the drawing board; they have too many championship pieces already in place. The Bears will have to take their lumps with Grossman.

ARIZONA – Controversy brewing?

Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to bench QB Matt Leinart Sunday in Baltimore. Leinart looked awful against the Ravens. He completed only nine passes in 20 attempts for a meager 53 yards, before being replaced by backup Kurt Warner. Warner was able to rally Arizona from a 17-point deficit. He played great completing 15-of-20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Cardinals still came up short as Baltimore kicker Matt Stover knocked in a last-second field goal giving the Ravens a three point win.

FPS analysis – It does not look like Leinart needs to sweat it. Whisenhunt said he will remain the starter. As Leinart struggles the rap against him coming out of college, that off-field activities were more important than football, will grow louder. Matt is only 24 and has started just 13 NFL games, so there’s huge upside. But, I’ve never been sold that Leinart is the real deal. While he is talented, the amazing skill players at USC propped him up. If the Cardinals want to win games now they should start Warner, the two-time league MVP. If they don’t, Whisenhunt and the rest of the organization better hope Leinart shows improvement.

Blogger's Note: *Donovan McNabb threw for 3,875 yards, 31 touchdowns with only eight interceptions in 2004.

Florida fraud

AP POLL NEEDS A RECOUNT AFTER FLIP-FLOP

The Associated Press college football poll has become an obsolete piece of garbage.

The AP Poll has not counted in the BCS picture since 2004, when the Harris Interactive Poll replaced it. The Harris panel is a hodgepodge group made up of former coaches, administrators and players along with some current and former members of the media. One unique feature of the Harris Poll is it waits for teams to play several games before ranking teams.

The AP Poll’s decline began after Appalachian State’s win at Michigan. AP pollsters decided they wanted to include I-AA** teams in the top 25 poll. Some voters were even impressed enough after App. State’s next win, 48-7 over Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, to garner 19 votes.

Are you kidding me?

But, this week the AP Poll outdid itself. First of all, there was a 12 vote first-place swing between No. 1 USC and No. 2 LSU. The LSU Tigers had gained ground on the Trojans after dismantling Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Apparently, USC’s 18-point victory over Nebraska was enough to win back some voters. All I know is that a lot people wasted energy last week debating who should be No. 1. If there was not a poll yet, the debate would have been irrelevant.

Here’s the kicker. After the Florida Gators crushed SEC-rival Tennessee, running up the score in the process, pollsters rewarded the Gators by jumping them over Oklahoma into the No. 3 spot.

The 39-point rout was the largest margin of victory in the series since the Vols hammered the Gators 45-3 in 1990. Florida starters played the entire game as the offense piled on 24 points in the fourth quarter.

What’s baffling is the end result. Oklahoma, who took care of business with a 54-3 win over Utah State, dropped one spot in the polls. The message the AP sent to all coaches is if you run up the score, we’ll reward you.

This is the latest disgusting gesture perpetrated by the AP. I can’t say I’m shocked; after all they’ve continually rewarded teams like Boise State and Penn State with high poll marks for big wins over pukey teams.

I think the Harris poll does it right. They don’t cast judgment until the season has begun and they don’t the change the rules mid-season.

Blogger’s Note: **Based on principle, I refuse to call I-AA schools by their new name, “Division I Football Championship Subdivision” teams.
Photo – For Pete’s Sake blacklisted Florida coach Urban Meyer celebrates after his sleazy 59-20 over Tennessee last Saturday. Photo courtesy of AP Photo – John Raoux.

October in September

Last year’s AL Champions, the Detroit Tigers, must take advantage of their opportunity over the next three days.

Today, the Tigers begin an October-like series against the division-leading Cleveland Indians, marking the final regular-season meeting between the two teams. Although the Indians have split six home games with Detroit this year, they lead the overall season series 9-6.

The Tigers are chasing both the Indians and the New York Yankees for a spot in the postseason and they are within striking distance of both.

It has been a frustrating summer in Detroit. After having one of the best records entering the All-Star break (52-34), the Tigers limped through August with an 11-18 record.

Some of Detroit’s woes had to do with the digression of starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. After beating Seattle on July 13, Bonderman was 10-1, but since he has gone 1-8 giving up at least six earned runs in five of his past nine starts.

However, not all is lost. On Sept. 4, Detroit was seven games behind Cleveland. But since then, the Tigers have won 10 of the past 12 games and pulled to within 4 ½ games of the Indians.

Indians’ starters C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona and Paul Byrd have helped Cleveland return to the top of baseball’s standings. Both Byrd and Sabathia are scheduled to pitch in the series.

It’s do-or-die time for the Tigers and for other MLB teams. Welcome to October in September. The Yankees and Red Sox finished a three game set yesterday in dramatic fashion. In the National League, seven teams are within 3 ½ games of their respective division leads or the wild card spot.

This frantic finish is what makes baseball great. Enjoy!