New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez is having one of the most prolific seasons by a major leaguer ever. With just six games remaining in the season, Rodriguez appears to be a lock for his third MVP award – he is hitting .311 with 52 home runs, 147 runs batted in, 138 runs scored and 90 walks.
However, Rodriguez can opt out of the final three years of his current contract with the Yankees, a contract that is scheduled to pay out $27 million. That opt out option has the rumor mill buzzing.
New York Magazine reported that A-Rod’s agent Scott Boras knows which group has the inside track in the sale of the Chicago Cubs and had “been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next 10 years.”
Boras denied the report today. But if you break it down there are only a handful of clubs that could add Rodriguez.
A-Rod is not going to play in a city that’s not a top 5 market and you can rule out a return to Dallas. That leaves New York, LA, Chicago and San Francisco. The Mets don’t need a third baseman or a shortstop, so scratch them. That leaves half-dozen teams: Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs and Giants.
But the better and less-asked question is winning the A-Rod sweepstakes worth it?
Boras drives a hard bargain and the anticipated number to get Rodriguez’s attention is $30 million a season, if he indeed opts out. In a New York Times article titled “Keeping Score,” Dan Rosenheck suggests that the maximum contribution A-Rod could make to a new employer in 2008 is nine victories.
In fact few free agents produce enough revenue to justify their contracts. The Houston Astros gave Carlos Lee $17 million a season entering 2007. While Lee leads the team in batting average, home runs and RBIs, he hasn’t helped Houston win.
In his article, Rosenheck concludes “the real way to make money in baseball is by developing young players and reaping the rewards of their production before they hit free agency. As with many auctions, the real winners of the A-Rod sweepstakes will be the teams that stay on the sideline.”
Rosenheck is dead on. Sometimes winning a sweepstake can be worth it. But often the team that wins doesn’t get much in return.
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