NCAA Hides Behind Statistics

As the saying goes, there's lies, damn lies and statistics.

In the name of higher academic standards the NCAA board of directors decided to talk big, but in reality do nothing.

On Thursday, the NCAA decided that in order to play in the postseason, schools must have a four-year average Academic Progress Rate (APR) of 930 or better. That equates to graduating about half of the players on a given roster.

For that, the headlines will praise them. Already the Knight Commission, a college sports watchdog, commended the change.

But APR does not equate to student athletes actually graduating from college.

Of course, like all good formulas it can be manipulated.

APR is calculated by allocating points for eligibility and retention, two factors that research identifies as two indicators of graduation. Each player earns a maximum of two points per term, one for being academically eligible and one for staying with the college.

It's not hard to keep athletes academically eligible.

BYU could struggle with
the new APR rules.

Football factories, Boise State now included, have it down to a science with most freshman and sophomores studying general studies (or football). Just because a player is eligible does not mean they walk away with a degree.

APR is also weighted to help the Alabamas of collegiate sports, while it hurts some of the smaller Division I institutions.

Places like Idaho and Washington State have their APR's killed due to retention struggles. Winter's brutal on the Palouse.

Also under the new rules, BYU might have seen a postseason bowl ban turning in an APR score below 930, despite the fact that most of the athletes really do earn a diploma.

But this should standout as a red flag. Among the "Big Six" BCS conferences, the SEC, known for its academic prowess, had exactly zero schools below the new APR benchmark.

APR scores have been trending upward in recent years as universities figure out how the beat the system.

NCAA President Mark Emmert says the higher APR benchmark sends "a clear signal to the world about what we care about and what we stand for."

Unfortunately, Emmert and the NCAA are going to hide behind their statistics. They may talk tough, but the system can be beat, and this reform is just a smoke screen.

Too Late For A Real USA Conference

A real Conference USA is happening!

Last week, word dropped that the Mountain West Conference (or WAC 2.0) and Conference USA agreed to form a football alliance. They hope the move will help solidify both conferences and maybe lead to an automatic BCS bid.

Sadly, this announcement comes too little too late in the conference shuffle.

There's a perceived pecking order in college sports, right or wrong. 

In the last conference shuffle, the ACC poached the Big East who gobbled up the best of C-USA. That's likely going to happen again with newest ACC expansion.

So when the Big 12 lost two members last fall, anyone who remotely follows college football knew at some point the Big 12 would make a push to get back to 12, the minimum number needed to hold a conference championship game. The conference appears to be losing even more members, so will likely push to add more.

A year ago, I suggested the WAC and C-USA should merge, creating an All-American conference stretching from the Carolina coast to Hawaii. That move would have gotten the schools ahead of the eight ball.

More than adding to the collective bargaining power to lobby for a BCS spot, a merger a year ago would have provided stability. It is a lot easier for a 18-team conference or alliance to survive members jumping ship than a nine team conference.

At this point, the 22-school football alliance between MWC and C-USA feels like a last gasp to stay relevant. 

Next year, the MWC will add three so-so football schools, but two of its best schools (Air Force and Boise State) could jump ship. Same goes for the best football schools in C-USA. Central Florida, Houston and SMU all have reportedly received invites to the Big East.

There's too many variables to write this merger off at this point. But with the best schools likely to move up the ladder, it's hard to imagine this experiment working out any differently than the 16-team WAC.

The main reason the mega WAC broke up, was because the four time zones and 3,900 miles separating Hawaii from Texas was too much of a travel burden for its members. 

College football is big business and big money, so this could work out. Only time will tell, but both conferences are playing catch up. That's a bad place to be.

Conference Mayhem Spiraling Out of Control

Conference turmoil is hanging over college football like a dark cloud.

The chase for more television money and prestige is killing the fun of old fashioned regional rivalries.

When the University of Pittsburgh exits the Big East, it's going to try to keep the Backyard Brawl going with West Virginia who's a mere 75 miles down the road, but no guarantees.


Looks like a growing blood feud is going to keep Texas and A&M from playing its traditional Thanksgiving weekend matchup, when the Aggies jump ship to the SEC.

The constant barrage of rumors of schools trading up, is nearly as annoying as the excuses they give during the shuffle. The real reason behind any move these days is money.

Still it doesn't stop school admins from spouting their spin.

Take mid-major darling TCU, which became the latest team to jump conferences this week, moving from the Mountain West to the Big East to the Big 12 in just 315 days.

TCU's athletic director Chris Del Conte made sure to puff up academics during the switches. 

Del Conte on the Big East, Nov. 2010:"Every single time we have an opportunity to think about where we're going to go, that's the leadership of our chancellor that says, 'Guess what? We dare to be great academically and athletically.' This decision [to go to the Big East] is great for TCU. ... The academic institutions that we're going to be associated with is unbelievable." 

Del Conte on the Big 12, Oct. 2011: "Joining the Big 12 connects us not only to schools with whom we share a rich tradition in sports, but also to schools committed to academic excellence."

Conference changes are going happen. But it used to be based on geographic and academic ties.

I'll give TCU the benefit of the doubt here, because it is now linked to a Texas-centric conference, than one centered around NYC.

Could the conferences at least wait until summer to do their school shopping?

It's crazy, it's distracting and at the end of the day it's ruining the fun of college sports. I just hope the revolving door stops spinning soon.

Sometimes Football Is Unwatchable

Wisconsin has bullied its way past powder-puffs for a perfect record so far.

The college football season is at its tipping point.

Teams are about to get into the heart of its conference seasons, and I hope the games get more interesting.

Up until this point, college football has been battered by a barrage of scandals, conferences cannibalizing one another for money and an uninteresting slate of non-conference games.

Aside from Oregon-LSU, which wasn't going to end well for the Ducks, and Oklahoma-Florida State, before the Seminoles free fall, it's impossible to name another marquee non-conference matchup that truly stands out.

Right now there are 13 undefeated teams, most of which have been unchallenged all season. And that's because of the Texas-ifcation of scheduling.

Why blame Texas for this mess?

In it's most recent trips to the national title, Texas has played a heavy dose of powder-puffs like Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice and Wyoming during its undefeated run to the title game.

Having an undefeated season no matter what has become the end goal, and it's being replicated with some success.

In 2007, Kansas climbed to No. 2 in the polls playing FIU and Southeastern Louisiana; a year later, Texas Tech played two I-AA schools, UMass and Eastern Washington, rising to No. 2 in the polls before it stumbled.

BCS conference schools have taken notice, it's not who you play, but that something-and-0 record that's all important. And it's making for and more early season snoozers.

Wisconsin clearly has grabbed the Horns mantle this year, blowing out UNLV (1-4), Oregon State (1-4), Northern Illinois (3-3) and I-AA South Dakota in route to No. 4 in the polls.

Right behind the Badgers, No. 5 Boise State is in the same boat.

The Broncos are becoming a perennial Top 10 team despite following the Texas recipe for success. So far this year Boise's big win came over a No. 19 Georgia team, which had no business being ranked to begin with.

To the average viewer, there's really no reason to sit down and watch college football until now.

It's been a season to forget so far, here's hoping that changes this weekend with a few upsets and more importantly some late-game theatrics.

MLB Can't Toot Its Horn, But Don't Buy It

MLB playoffs are in full swing and Bud Selig and Co. want you to believe it's not the same old October story.

But it is.

Three of the eight playoff teams this year (Milwaukee, Arizona and Tampa Bay) are in the bottom half of team payrolls.

Arizona went from worst to first, while the Brewers won its division for the first time in 29 years, and those bottom dwellers are who the commissioner wants fans to focus on.

They want you to believe there's a weakening correlation between player payroll and postseason participation.

While the statistics show that narrative is true, it doesn't tell the whole story.

In the first five years of the wild-card (1995-1999), just one of the 40 playoff spots was earned by a team in the bottom half of player payroll.

However, in the past five years (2005-2010) things have opened up with 12 of the 40 playoff spots going to the bottom payroll teams.

Selig was recently quoted saying: "I used to say, my job is to try to make the dollar less important than good management. I think we have done that."

Actually, Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane did that. Beane changed the way nearly every organization approaches the game.

Still, it takes money to win.

In fact 10 of the 13 MLB teams that had records above .500 in 2011, were in the top half of league payroll.

It's great that three of the four most recent World Series participants ranked among the bottom five in payroll -- the Texas Rangers last year, the Rays in 2008 and the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

But the glass ceiling remains, only the Florida Marlins in 2003 won a World Series with a low-budget team.

Despite what they may claim, baseball's still got an October problem. And money still buys championships.