Tuesday, August 24, 2010

NCAA fearless predictions: Version 2k10

I'm ready for the new season of college football. So ready in fact, I'm a week ahead of myself for when games actually kick-off.

Regardless, we can't turn the page on a new season without some fearless and bold predictions. There's a good chance come January, I won't want to look back at these...

Boiler Up! Purdue is going bowling this year especially since its playing a schedule that was a BCS-worst 67-81 in 2009.

UConn will contend for the Big East title, but will come up just short. Also, don't expect Cincinnati, who lost head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame, to fall off the wagon.

Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins (16-33 at CU) might just be coaching intramurals by season's end.

Hawkins failures, compounded with Dirk Koetter's snafu at Arizona State (40-34, 2-19 vs. ranked teams) means current Boise State head coach Chris Peterson will be a Bronco for life, despite a disappointing 10-3 season this year for the Smurf turfers.

The Big 12 won't be staying at 10 teams for long. Great seasons by TCU and Houston will fast track them for membership in the new Texas-centric conference.

Nevada's Colin Kaepernick is probably the quarterback you haven't heard of. You'll know about him by the end of the year.

Florida State QB Christian Ponder will pass himself into the Heisman lead by the beginning of October and won't look back.

What about last year's Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Ingram will have fewer total yards from scrimmage then Alabama backfield partner Trent Richardson.

The Crimson Tide will still win the SEC, but will be considered this year's biggest disappointment. It's all relative, because anything less than a second straight trip to the BCS title game will be considered a failure. I don't see that happening because...

A non-AQ will play for the national championship. Which brings to the rest of my predictions.

Conference Champions:
ACC: Florida State (Atlantic), Virginia Tech (Coastal)
Big 10: Ohio State
Big 12: Oklahoma (South), Nebraska (North)
Big East: Pittsburgh
Pac-10: Oregon
SEC: Alabama (West), Georgia (East)
C-USA: Houston
MAC: No. Illinois
Mt. West: TCU
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
WAC: Boise State, Nevada (tie)

BCS Bowl Predictions
ROSE BOWL: Oregon vs. Texas
FIESTA BOWL: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs. Pitt
SUGAR BOWL: Alabama vs. Miami

TITLE GAME: Ohio State vs. TCU

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Conference alignment: WAC-ky out West

College football conference swamping is quickly becoming a sport all its own.

To quickly recap the off-season, the Pac-10 (home to most of the largest and academically prestigious schools in the West) wanted to form a 16-team super conference and failed.

Still desiring NCAA football's golden goose (a conference title game) they raided the Big-12 (Colorado) and the Mountain West, plucking up by far the most successful mid-major program in the BCS era, Utah. Reaching its magic number of 12, the Pac-10 created a trickle down effect.

The MWC needing a new "power" football member turned to Boise State, who gladly ran from the WAC.

I thought the dust had settled until this past week.

That's when BYU started another round of the blood-sport known as conference alignment, with the rumors the school was going independent in football and joining the WAC in all other sports.

In the midst of trying to obtain an automatic BCS bid for its champion the Mountain West, down two possible members, made a preemptive strike adding Frenso State and Nevada from the WAC.

Also as you could expect, WAC commissioner Karl Benson had some harsh words for the latest schools to bolt.

However, it's not likely those additions could make up for the loss of Utah and BYU when it comes the BCS. It does my heart good to see Boise State fans, who were so excited to join the MWC, now realizing they're joining the WAC-plus.

So the question now is what becomes of the WAC?

In 2012, the conference could be facing extinction, down to only six members: Hawai'i, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State and Utah State. It needs two more members.

The maligned WAC will find away to survive.

One possible route is luring a couple old members back into the pack, and three schools jump out: San Diego State, Wyoming and UTEP. All have struggled in football the past several years and could make its alumni very happy by playing a lower conference competition and winning. After all Boise has proven its not all about who you beat, but how often you win.

The other more likely route is adding I-AA (or FCS) schools. The WAC has nurtured several programs to Division I status before. Currently, Texas State is the only I-AA school that would be ready to make a jump in 2011. Others who could decide to move up: Cal Poly, Texas-San Antonio, Sacramento State and UC-Davis.

The good news for the WAC, as Idaho athletic director Rob Spear wrote, pending NCAA legislation may require a school moving from I-AA (FCS) to I-A (FBS) to have conference affiliation.

Who knows what the future holds, and if the major conferences will again try to form super-conferences.

The absolute best case for the WAC in 2012 (and plausibly realistic) would look something like this: Hawai'i, Idaho, New Mexico St., Sacramento St., San Diego St., San Jose St., Utah St., UTEP (with BYU in all other sports). But I know they'll settle for staying alive.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

It's a trap! and other sideline mayhem

The countdown to the unofficial kickoff of fall is less than three weeks away. Soon tailgates and the pageantry of football Saturday's will return to college campuses across the country.

Before we get there, two off-season story lines were too bizarre not to write about. I was reminded of the first over the past weekend when I found myself watching a sci-fi flick.

The University of Mississippi ditched its former mascot Colonel Reb (or Colonel Sanders if you're from north of the Mason-Dixon) in 2003. One of his possible replacements, none other than the most famous Mon Calamarian, Admiral Ackbar.

Yes, this Admiral Ackbar.


A Star Wars alien as a mascot!?! Talk about a complete break from the previous imagery of Colonel Reb -- old-white plantations owners, slavery, 19th century South (and KFC). After all the Colonel was dropped because his image was too Old South and might offend minorities.

I'm not sure where the mascot search committee is at this point, but Ackbar's candidacy wasn't taken seriously so we won't be seeing him on a football sideline anytime soon. Too bad really.

A trip to the 'Red Zone', literally

Eastern Washington football is going to bring a entirely new meaning to the term "red zone".

That's because its turf will be bright red.

Former EWU standout and current Tennessee Titan starter, Michael Roos, donated $500,000 to help with the "Red Turf" project.

When the Eagles take the field for the first time Sept. 18 versus Montana, the red artificial turf will be the only of its kind in the entire country.

But why play on red field? Taking after Smurf turf.

"There is no doubt that one of Boise State's claim to fame has been their blue turf and like it or dislike it, it has certainly brought them a tremendous amount of notoriety," EWU athletic director Bill Chaves said in a media release.

I'm not sure how I feel about this. But staring at a red field for three hours can't be any worse than a blue one.

Also, I can quickly see the idea of installing a unique football turf color getting out of hand. Good thing Eastern is out in front of this curve.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Players love playoffs, until they think about it

Playoffs?! We're talking about playoffs?

Yes. BCS or playoffs, the debate will again be a huge theme in major college football, which has a fun (albeit contorted) bowl system. Plus, college football pundits need to something to occupy their talking time since Tim Tebow has graduated to the NFL.

ESPN got the ball rolling on this debate this week, by polling 135 players from across the country, for its ESPN Magazine preview. What they found was that players want a playoff, until they thought about it.

When asked do they want a playoff, an overwhelming majority, 62.2 percent or 84 of the 135, said yes. But things dramatically changed when players were asked about the specifics.

Asked if they'd rather have an I-AA (FCS)-style, 16-team playoff (no bowls) or the current system, 70 percent took the current system. Then asked if they'd rather have a career with three bowl trips or one playoff trip, again more than 70 percent said bowls.

One Big 12 star who voted for a playoff (suggested starting with 16 teams) wavered big time, "if you put it that way, I'd rather have the bowl trips."

As a fan, I'd rather have the bowl trips, except bowls don't mean as much as they once did. But neither does the BCS for that matter.

It's all about scamming the system. Teams use what I call the Texas-model, try to get a high preseason ranking, play one tough game and win, go undefeated and play for the BCS title. That produces a watered down season. Would it really get better if you cut the football season by one game for a coveted 16-team playoff?

I love the idea of a college football playoff, until I start thinking about the reality of it.