The countdown to Selection Sunday is on!
Less than five weeks away to NCAA men’s basketball tournament and the regular season is setting up for a dramatic finish. Still, there’s lots of basketball left and the biggest thing for any team is to keep winning.
That rings especially true for teams sitting on the Bubble. FPS will break down bubble teams in the coming weeks and make predictions if they’ll make the field or not. A good place to start is with a deep field of mid-major’s that could grab 25 percent of the at-large selections.
Punched Ticket Already: Memphis, Butler, Xavier, Drake, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga
On the Bubble…
Rhode Island (20-4) [A10] – The Rams boast nonconference wins over Syracuse and Providence and remain in the top 25 in RPI. Overall strength of schedule (SOS) is mediocre; Rhode Island avoided disaster in Fordham and should finish the year with at least 25 wins. Verdict: Rams get in, easily
Dayton (16-6) [A10] – The Flyers were a clear NCAA team before being hampered by injuries. They beat Louisville and Pitt out of the conference during a 14-1 start. RPI and SOS remain in the top 25, but Dayton is flirting with dangerous slope in the Atlantic-10 standings (4-5). Verdict: Flyers will make the field
UMass (15-8) [A10] – The Minutemen appear to be on solid ground when looking at RPI (24) and SOS (9). UMass has defeated Syracuse, BC, Houston, but got swept by St. Joe’s and lost to A10 leader Xavier recently. Verdict: UMass needs at least 20 wins to be the A10’s fourth team, they have the inside track
Saint Joseph’s (15-7) [A10] – Saint Joe's is currently tied with Rhode Island for second in the A10. Four of the Hawks seven losses were “quality,” two in overtime (Gonzaga and Creighton) and two more in the final-possession (Syracuse and Holy Cross). The Hawks cannot afford to go 4-3 in their final seven games. Verdict: Hawks may need to get to the conference finals…tentatively out
Charlotte (14-8) [A10] – The 49ers are the A10 dark horse to make the field, but the pressure is off them. RPI and SOS are mediocre at best; boast wins over Clemson, Wake Forest, Davidson and Southern Illinois. Charlotte must finish in the top four in the league. Verdict: Niners must get at least 20 wins and make the semis of the A10 tourney…to be determined, a complete wildcard
George Mason (17-7) [CAA] – Cinderella from two season’s ago is back, hoping to burst someone else’s bubble. The Patriots get another shot at Colonial leading VCU soon. GMU defeated a healthy Dayton squad, Kansas State and South Carolina, but have an unpretentious RPI and SOS. Verdict: If the Pats define themselves as the clear No. 2 in the CAA, a little love gets them in
Ohio (16-7) [MAC] – Ohio is a perfect bubble team. The Bobcats beat Maryland and St. John’s on the road, but got smashed by Kansas and lost to MAC bottom feeder Eastern Michigan. Inconsistent play has hurt, but Ohio has a real chance to improve its status with upcoming games against Kent State, Akron and George Mason. Verdict: RPI/SOS will be too much to overcome, bubble burst alert
Creighton (17-6) [MVC] – Hit a rough patch losing three in a row, but the Bluejays are a tournament favorite. Wins over DePaul, Nebraska and Saint Joe’s are respectable as is their RPI and SOS. Winner’s of three in a row, Creighton needs to finish strong. Verdict: Bluejays sneak into the field of 65
UNLV (18-5) [MWC] – The Rebels are a paper tiger. They have slightly better than their main Mountain West competition (BYU) on-paper, but nonconference losses to San Diego, UCSB and Arizona are easily forgotten. Best win, a 29-point drubbing of Brigham. Verdict: no chance for at-large bid, must win MWC tourney in Vegas
Brigham Young (18-5) [MWC] – The Cougars graced the AP top 25 for several weeks early in the season. Solid RPI and decent SOS paired with competitive losses to North Carolina and Michigan State has them in good shape for an at-large bid. Most importantly BYU has won six in a row. Verdict: Cougs will be a testy first-round opponent, stealing an at-large bid
2 comments:
If you're going to include Conference USA powerhouse Memphis in the mid-major discussion, second place Houston deserves some consideration as well. They only have five losses in C-USA, beat a now semi-resurgent Kentucky team earlier in the season and could steal a tourney bid with a win over Memphis in the conference tournament.
Plus, if Rhode Island gets bounced early in the A-10 conference tourney this year or takes one too many conference losses (they already have four) late in the season, as many mid-majors with fantastic non-conference wins, and high RPIs do (last year's Air Force/Austin Peay/Hofstra, anyone?), they may be on the outside looking in at a 6th team from the Pac-10 or an 8th team from the Big East sliding in.
Derek, you bring up a couple excellent points. In C-USA, Houston has the best chance outside Memphis to make the NCAA field. The Tigers shouldn't really be considered a mid-major anymore, rather a high-major. With UAB losing to Memphis, Houston dodged a bullet and remained in sole possession of second place. But outside their win over Kentucky, the Cougars don't have a marquee win (they also don't have a bad loss). Houston is certainly in the Bubble mix and will be a debated squad.
Due to the strength of the Pac-10, the conference gets six teams (UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Wazzu are already in). That leaves four schools fighting for two spots and Oregon and USC have the inside track right now (with higher RPIs and tougher SOS). An eight team from Big East might be stretching it, but Syracuse is in the mix and will be HEAVILY debated come Selection Sunday. I'm getting ahead of myself, but wanted to share.
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