He's no Montana, not even close

If you're trying to figure out the next media crush when Florida quarterback Tim Tebow graduates, look no further than USC's Matt Barkley.

After one collegiate game SI.com writer Stewart Mandel set off a barrage of anger when he compared the Trojans freshman QB to All-time great Joe Montana. Things have gotten worse since USC stole a win last Saturday in Columbus.

LA Time's columnist Bill Plaschke wrote "the questions that had dogged the USC football program for several weeks were stunningly answered Saturday night with two words. Matt. Barkley."

Fanhouse's Jay Mariotti wrote "never have I seen a quarterback so young, in a game with Bowl Championship Series implications, carve out an epic 86-yard rally in an enemy setting." Others evoked images of a John Elway-esque drive.

This has been bugging me all week. Were they watching the same game I was?

I give USC lots of credit for the win. And yes, Barkley was taking snaps on the final drive but what did he really do?

Give the ball to tailback Joe McKnight. McKnight lead the Trojans down the field on that "epic" drive, circa Reggie Bush. Bush bailed out USC time-and-time again during his time in LA.

Barkley completed three throws on the final drive, though two of them were dump off passes. For the game the freshman was a pedestrian 15-of-31 passing for 195 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception (yawn).

Call me crazy, I just don't see the Montana or Elway comparisons. Barkley could develop into that type of player one day, but it's clear he's not there yet. I wouldn't even say he's as good as Mark Sanchez.

As for the game 18-15 victory, I'd say Barkley & Co. are lucky referees continue to conform to human nature, and err a lot.

NFL Predictions: It's going to be a struggle

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers challenge the New England Patriots as the "team of the decade"? Will QB Tom Brady put up ridiculous offensive numbers again? TO is in yet another uniform, but how long until he wear's out his Buffalo welcome? Those are just a few story lines as we begin the 2009 NFL Season. But the biggest story line if you ask me, is along the sidelines.

There are nine first-time head coaches in the NFL (including two in the Bay Area who were interim coaches last year). Their average age is 43.7-years-old and it shows.  Denver's new head man, 33-year-old Josh McDaniels, wasted no time chasing away QB Jay Cutler and killing wide out Brandon Marshall's resolve. Raheem Morris, 33, and Todd Haley, 42, both fired their respective offensive coordinator's days before kickoff. Oakland coach Tom Cable allegedly punched out someone on his staff. How will these coaches fare? We will soon find out.

Now onto my fearless predictions (which I tweeted before Thursday night's slug fest)...

AFC PLAYOFFS

Baltimore (Wild Card): QB Joe Flacco got lucky when Derrick Mason decided to keep playing. The Ravens running game should be dominant, with a strong offensive line and loaded backfield.

Indianapolis (South champ): It doesn't matter who the head coach is (Tony Dungy retired this off season) with QB Peyton Manning starting the season healthy the Colts will reclaim the division crown.

New England (East champ): Tom Brady's back, Bill Belichick is coaching. Enough said.

Pittsburgh (North champ): They return nearly everyone from their sixth Super Bowl championship team. Last year the Steelers slugged through the league's toughest schedule, things ease up with the fourth easiest schedule this year.

San Diego (West champ): In a terrible division, the Bolts should win the division title with relative comfort. If they keep oft-injured players like LT, Shawne Merriman and Antonio Gates healthy, the postseason could be special.

Tennessee (Wild Card): They will continue to play Jeff Fisher smash-mouth football, which means they aren't falling out of the playoff picture.

NFC PLAYOFFS

Green Bay (Wild Card): The Packers' move to a 3-4 defense will be dramatic and help vault the Pack into the playoffs thanks to their potent offense.

Minnesota (North champ): Despite bringing in Brett Favre, the Vikings are Adrian Peterson's team. AP will carry the load as the defense talent remains tremendous.

New Orleans (South champ): The Saints could be a legit Super Bowl contender because their offense is a Brees (that's lead by QB Drew Brees). New coordinator Gregg Williams will improve the D just enough to get them into January.

NY Giants (Wild Card): New York's defense is stacked and QB Eli Manning only needs to come up with a few big plays to win 10 games. Punch their ticket, the G-Men are going back to the playoffs.

Philadelphia (East champ): The Eagles are the most talent laden team in the NFC. With coaching stability, QB Donovan McNabb is out of excuses if Philly doesn't win.

Seattle (West champ): The Seahawks were crippled last year due to injuries. The defense should improve and getting QB Matt Hasselbeck back and healthy will pay dividends. 

And as for the biggest game...

SUPER BOWL: San Diego OVER Philadelphia -- It's a big anniversary for the AFL, one it's original teams is bound to win. The Chargers seem overdue and I think Rivers, LT and company get the job done.

NCAA Kickoff: Who will win it all?

You won't see Florida celebrating again in 2009.

It's the first big day of the 2009 college football season, which means it's time for some fearless predictions.

Nearly every writer and analyst is picking the Florida Gators to make back-to-back appereances in the BCS Championship game. Most are taking the Gators to will win it all. I can see why. 

The Florida defense returns 11 starters and all the top reserves, making it one of the deepest units in the country. And fearless leader QB Tim Tebow returns for his senior season. But I see trouble in Gainesville this year.

First, new offensive coordinator Steve Addazio has been experimenting with the I-formation this offseason. That means the Gators will likely use Tim Tebow more under center and not exclusively out the shotgun. Basically, Florida's explosive spread offense will be handicapped by their play calling. Why change something when it clearly not broken?

I think this is the ball game for Gator coach Urban Meyer and his spread. If his coaching staff cannot shape Tebow into a NFL caliber quarterback, elite QB recruits will recognize Alex Smith and Tebow could not make the professional jump and snub the Gators.

The second area of trouble for the Gators is fact they will speedy wideout Percy Harvin (now a Minnesota Viking). Harvin was a college game-changer and his presence is really irreplaceable. Put the ball in his and something special happens. Like USC without Reggie Bush, I think Florida will struggle in some key situations without Harvin.

Where do the '09 Gators end up? Here are my picks...

ORANGE BOWL: Georgia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Ohio State (At-large)

SUGAR BOWL: Florida (At-large) vs. West Virgina (Big East champ) 

FIESTA BOWL: USC (At-large) vs. Texas (At-large)

ROSE BOWL: Penn State (Big 10 champ) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champ)

TITLE GAME: Oklahoma OVER Alabama

Boise fracas could have been reduced

In the heat of the moment a stupid sucker punch ended running back LeGarrette Blount's promising college football career.

The incident has been replayed or mentioned on ESPN nearly every 10 minutes today. Following the No. 16 Oregon Ducks lethargic 19-8 loss to Boise State Thursday, Blount socked Bronco defensive end Byron Hout in the jaw.

In every case it takes two to tango. Hout yelled in Blount's face and slapped his shoulder pad. You can't tell what Hout said but Boise State coach Chris Petersen obviously took offense to it and quickly tried to step in. Unfortunately, LeGarrette's fist got there first.

I've read and listened to a lot of analysts talk about the fracas, and the reoccurring word of the day describing the incident is "reprehensible." Blount was wrong, but his actions were not unforgivable. 

You don't punch a guy -- who probably deserved it -- and it was despicable for him to try and go after Boise fans. But that situation with the fans should never have happened.

Bronco fans were given a second chance to view the confrontation when it was replayed on the stadium's JumboTron. This gave fans the chance to break out into a frenzy and to taunt Blount for reason aside from his big mouth. There's no telling what would have happened if the incident was not replayed, but I think there is a good chance many in the crowd would have missed it.

To me replaying the punch was more reprehensible than the punch itself. The repetition ensured that every Boise State fan saw what happened and incited some to heckle Blount.

In Major League Baseball, controversial plays are rarely replayed on the big screens in stadiums so fans don't become belligerent. The NCAA needs to review its big screen replay rules and look into why the punch seen around the world was replayed inside Boise's stadium.

NCAA Kickoff: Will Tebow-love ever end?

It goes beyond being called a bromance. The media's infatuation with Florida QB Tim Tebow qualifies as straight up man love. 

Unfortunately, it's not going to stop anytime soon. There's even an entire blog devoted to all things Tebow.

What's not to love, right? He is the leader of the indisputable preseason favorite to win a third national championship in four years. The media voted the Gators No. 1 in the AP poll with a record 96.7 percent of first-place votes.

The bullish Tebow has already amassed 110 career touchdowns (running, passing and jump-passing), a pair of SEC titles, two national championships, one Heisman award and one post-game speech immortalized outside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. That's quite the list. 

And now, everyone is fawning over Tebow accomplishments. They say he's going to be the best ever.

CFN's Pete Fiutak writes "if Tebow leads the Gators to the national title, and/or if he wins a second Heisman, the question won't be whether or not he's the greatest college quarterback of all-time; the question will be how wide the gap is between him and the No. 2 guy on the list."

Blogger Dan Shanoff writes "Tim Tebow is already in the conversation for 'Greatest Ever,' even before this season starts. Layer in another national title and another Heisman, and I don't think it's close."

Even the more skeptical SI.com writer Stewart Mandel seemed to heed the hype after developing a greatest score.

I just can't buy into it. Tim Tebow's "greatness" is unequivocally tied to Florida coach Urban Meyer and his offensive system. Which makes Tebow a "system guy." Just look at this comparison:

PASSING STATS

--Alex Smith ('04): 2,952 yards, 9.3 yds/att, 32 TDs, 4 Ints, 176.5 Rating

--Tim Tebow ('07, Heisman winner): 3,286 yards, 9.3 yds/att, 32 TDs, 6 Ints, 172.5 Rating

RUSHING STATS

--Smith: 802 yards, 14 TDs, 4. 9 yds/carry*

--Tebow: 895 yards, 23 TDs, 4.3 yds/carry 

Eerily similar? 

OK, I fudged on Smith's rushing stats. He actually rushed for 631 yards and a mere 10 touchdowns. But the Utes leading rusher from '04, Marty Johnson, actually put up those near *matching numbers.

It was Meyer's gimmicky spread offense turned in an undefeated season for Utah in 2004 and made then QB Alex Smith into a No. 1 pick. So shouldn't this really be a discussion about him?

Tim Tebow is reaping the benefits of playing under one of the most destructive offensive schemes in college football history. He's been more productive than previous quarterbacks Smith and Omar Jacobs. But that doesn't make him great.

Greatness envelops talent. You could see it in the likes of Archie Griffin, Jim Brown, Herschel Walker and even Peyton Manning. That's where the media is missing in the love-fest. Tebow's true talent has yet to be measured.

Where will Tebow measure up? Only time will tell. But for now get the antacids ready, because it's Tebow's world and we're living in it.